. Very Competitive. The Survey of Construction does not collect sales information for multifamily buildings or for existing homes. The median home price on the Eastside just hit $880,000 and in Seattle the median home price is $722,000, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Eventually the inventory of homes for sale gets bigger and bigger and the housing market becomes a “Buyers Market” which is where we are in the cycle today. 1-Year Appreciation Rate: 9.1%. An increase of a percentage point or two over the next several years could definitely accelerate downward momentum and severity of a decline. The red line shows inflation-adjusted median single-family home prices (in 2007 dollars) from 1946 through 2007. (Misc. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Median income has not changed much, but the median income of the home buying class has increased significantly. There are examples of house price declines even while jobs and population were growing (Arizona in 2006, for example). Median house prices are climbing so quickly it is hard to keep up with the numbers. – check the link on Tim’s radarlogic post. However, homes in the 500k-1m price range sold the fastest. As far as the strength of our local economy goes, if the global economy contracts 5% to 15% in the next couple years, there is NO way Seattle’s major employers won’t feel the impact. 1) There is NO correlation between job creation or population growth and housing prices. .not bad anyway in my book. Flies in the face of reality and we are setting up nicely for an even bigger bust that will occur in slow motion over the next 5-8 years. 9-50.0% year-over-year. While we keep spending billions in military might, the rest of the world is moving forward technologically. I, too, would like to see income/afford ability data overlaid. When the median house costs $450k, $60-80k of income seemes like lower level pay. The vast majority of sub-prime loans have already reset. Most Competitive. Alt-A’s will continue to reset until the end of 2009. Median Sale Price. Browse detailed statistics & rent trends, compare apartment sizes and rent prices by neighborhood. Regionally, prices were much higher. 2020 … Get latest updates, multilingual resources, and details of Gov. The losses in LA are going to push 40-50%. I think we all know long term affordability has to be the primary determinant of price. Tim said -“after a very short breather” )That’s an 8.8% increase, year to year, from February 2017, when the median home price in the state was $480,270. 1,259 homes sold this month; 1.6 months of inventory available in Seattle; 21 was the average days on market for a home to sell in Seattle I needed historical median home prices … You decide how you want to interpret them. Can you imagine a Seattle ten years from now that has $900,000 – $1,000,000 median home prices on an average household income of $70,000 – $90,000 or do thousands of our neighbors losing their homes and going bankrupt seem like a more probable scenario. View listing photos, review sales history, and use our detailed real estate filters to find the perfect place. Past results are no guarantee of future performance. 101.6% was the average listing price vs. sales price percentage; $296 was the average price per square foot in Snohomish County. This ratio is calculated using household size adjusted median contract rent for Seattle. Foreclosures are mainly determined by the amount of equity home-owners have. In Hawaii—the state with the highest median home value of $619,000—the outstanding average mortgage amount was $345,963 or 44% lower than the estimated home value. Seattle Single Family House Sales by Month, with Median Price per House Square Foot (from King County Data) I am sure many people put down less than 20% so it will require even less time. But there are lots of reasons to think there will not be a 20+% bloodbath, like what has been seen in LV, Miami, etc. 6.25 on a 30 year par.? Will take YEARS to work off the overall inventory glut that is out there. In 1980, it was $47,200, and by 2000, it had risen to $119,600. This fellow is probably not around anymore but I was searching for historic Seattle home prices and came across this. This is especially apparent when one looks at the inflation adjusted Case-Shiller data starting in I believe 1890, and remaining essentially flat until the 1980’s when it heads for the sky. Doubtful. A 20 percent decline over a few years seems like it’s not even the worst case scenario. Good work on that. Not sure it’ll have a huge impact on the bulk of properties in Seattle. Personally I think that’s a lot more likely. So a lot of them start walking – either as a response to some crisis, or just because they don’t see the point of feeding the alligator any more. Graph and download economic data for Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS) from Q1 1963 to Q3 2020 about median, sales, housing, and USA. Is there any chance Tim that you can share the data behind the graph (perhaps add it to the SeattleBubble spreadsheet that you publish monthly? It might be better to use a logarithmic axis for the raw price. Most of the foreclosure activity will take place this year and possibly into next year because the people who bought homes they never should have qualified for in the first place are not able to keep up with their payments indefinitely and they are forced to sell or lose their homes at auction. Oil at $100, Euro at us$ 1,50, the Dow 30 brings in bank of America to reflect the move of our economy to services and finances. Americans are in a historic amount of debt; and our economy is over 65% consumption!!!!! I discussed the “steps” mainly to explore whether Steve Tytler’s theory holds any water, and if so, what would it mean going forward. Thankfully we still have World Savings (Wachovia) with their Cosi/Cofi stated stated option arm. Seattle’s economy will benefit disproportionately from strength in the non-US global economy. […] I posted last week’s 61-year home price history, I promised a follow-up on affordability. $747,000 +6.9% year-over-year # of Homes Sold. We won’t know what the local median is until that is done. Pretty amusing that the optomistic answer turned out to be correct and in all likelyhood so was the pessimistic answer. (All this when inflation is pushing 5%.) During the housing bubble of 2006 the ratio reached 4.5 - in other words, the median price for a single family home in the United States cost 4.5 times the US median annual household income. (1993-2007 Home Prices: NWMLS) The Fed will be loath to keep slashing rates when the CPI hits the 5% mark. The median home price on the Eastside just hit $880,000 and in Seattle the median home price is $722,000, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Also look at household formation index and demographic trends combined with overall number of single family detached homes constructed and still standing. Kim Malcolm talks with Seattle Times reporter Mike Rosenberg about why the Seattle area is leading the nation in home price decreases. 100. In general home prices in the US are about three times annual household income levels. Don’t bother citing Tim’s employment study because it is majorly flawed. I know this was a lot of work. Clearly, your eyes are only trained to see misleading two-dimensional graphs. The market is relatively even YOY in Seattle proper and stablized in December and January. So, here’s an updated look at the long-term trends in local home prices and […]. Even though homes are relatively illiquid, their value can be tapped via home equity loans as happened with great frequency during the housing bubble. This will effectively lower interest rates. You will never see a major housing price crash here. – 2007 vintages of subprime are worse than previous vintages, so more defaults on less volume = about the same amount of problems. The significant down turns that were mentioned were associated with significant economic issues. Let’s look at the three “steps” from 1968 to 1997. Probably not. Thanks for giving me credit for the “stair step” explanation of home price appreciation in the Puget Sound region. During the housing bubble of 2006 the ratio reached 4.5 - in other words, the median price for a single family home in the United States cost 4.5 times the US median annual household income. Prices jump up, flatten out, jump up again, flat out, and so on. SEATTLE - Home prices in the Seattle metro area fell last month, according to a new report released Monday. I am sure many people put down less than 20% so it will require even less time”. However, I think it very clearly shows the limited utility of economic data. I also want to say thanks Tim for all his work in putting together these graphs! 5. King County Affordability: 1950-2007 | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. The average size for a Seattle, WA apartment is 698 square feet, but this number varies greatly depending on unit type, with cheap and luxury alternatives for houses and apartments alike. 125% of that is $543k. Nice post, but I think you need to check some of your “facts”: Then something happens – maybe an economic upturn or lower interest rates – to encourage speculative buying, and prices start rising. And we’re just beginning this process. 1y 3y 5y. During this period the excess housing inventory is wrung out of the market until eventually the supply-demand curves tips into the seller’s favor and we are off to the races again with another housing boom. Like the low rates of the 2003-2004 period, the emergence of subprime loans and loose “stated income” loans with zero down payment opened the housing market to many people who had been previously shut out. This generally will affect the lowest end of the real estate market. Seattle property is falling at a rate of 16% annualized on a $/sq foot right now (7.5% off peak in < 6 months) I can’t remember exactly. I think this is a great use of an incredible data set, well done Tim. Agreed. I think it was in 1990 or 1992 when they quit making more land. In Seattle, WA, homes are currently listed at a median price of $661,725 and sold for a median price of $501,989. October and November were ugly. 90. I’ll believe that until proved otherwise. Sure likes like Robert Shiller’s historical chart for nationwide prices after inflation! This recent run-up in Mtg rates will definitely slow the already testy mkt. After doing some digging I discovered that the UW Special Collections has a complete set of the reports going all the way back to the beginning. If by the rest of world, you mean China and India, I don’t want to disappoint you, but those countries aren’t much better in technological innovation than Mexico. $60k is a lower level job at M$, and that’s what they’re adding. For example, is there a much higher percentage of loans which are 100% finance, negative amortization, or Option ARM today than in the past? Note - beginning in November 2019, these tables will be available only in Excel format. What happened after 1992? Home prices nationwide were up 14.2% year-over-year in October. They rank a subpar #44 and #59 [even Japan is only #18]….can’t see from these pragmatic facts why we go to the east for savior labor in IT? As a result, prices went up at a historic pace, and there’s nothing to suggest they will stop anytime soon. With the average cost of a home in San Francisco hovering at $1.61 million, a typical 30-year mortgage—with a 20 percent down payment at today’s 4.55 percent interest rate—would require a monthly payment of $7,900 (more than double the $3,333 median monthly rent for a one-bedroom apartment last year). Over the last three months, the price of a home in the Seattle area dropped by 3.3 percent, the largest decrease in the U.S.The median price of a house in Seattle is now $750,000. superimposed on the one above to see how they compare. It will take another 20 months for the Alt-A mortgages to reset. If you controlled for factors, like land restrictions, home structure growth, income growth in the HOME BUYING CLASS, then you would see a much clearer relationship. Unemployment Rate: 4.8% . Most of the weakness in the market will come from the 1000 sq ft boxes in drainage ditches on the south side. I’m not certain that the past is all that instructive either, Marc. What you’re saying, indirectly, is that the home buying class has shrunk significantly. Now lets look at the number of homes available for sale. If banks are seeing inflationary futures, they will increase mortgage rates if the Fed cuts their rates. Was King County’s Recent Home Price Boom Unprecedented? But “temporary” irrational deviations sure can last longer than we think they should. Could you please explain how you adjusted for inflation? #33: Folks; we are all one board meeting away from loosing our jobs. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_Loan_crisis. Case developed a method for comparing repeat sales of the same homes in an effort to study home pricing trends. And OFHEO has been clear on 2 things – they’re going not rolling these into the existing pools, so there is likely to still be a jumbo premium, and they’re going to be pretty restrictive on requirements so most will not quailfy. Seattle home prices rising twice as fast as national average — only Portland is faster by Kurt Schlosser on June 1, 2016 at 11:10 am June 1, 2016 at 11:10 am Comments Share Tweet Share Reddit Email Inslee's Safe Start proclamation: Coronavirus.wa.gov. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Washington Household Income. Graph and download economic data for Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS) from Q1 1963 to Q3 2020 about median, sales, housing, and USA. What happened in the 1970-1985 period? $845,500 +16.5% year-over-year. And who knows about MSFT?? That’s your new limit. What a mess!! America used to be #1, we’ve plummetted to #7 in technology innovation. The only areas that are going to survive this bubble are the areas that didn’t appreciate faster than their historical averages. Unsold Inventory Index (UII) of Existing Single Family Homes Personally I think we’re currently in uncharted waters as far as home prices go. I agree with Lionel and Software engineer. In any case, I’m just presenting you with the facts. Median Household Income: $71,273. One of the last great products for us investors! Also, did you post the affordability graph that you mentioned in February? My best guess at this point is that it will take about 4-7 years from now before we start to see any significant housing appreciation. Seattle’s economic well-being was highly dependent on a single company that was struggling. (Inflation Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics – Consumer Price Index). We will then have a flat period while all this excess inventory works its way out of the system. Mortgage rates hit a 40-year low in 2003. Interesting the concept that “the market will never go down” given the span of 2006-2009. After WW II, we were the shopping mall of the world; if you needed clothes hangers you needed to come to us; nobody was making anything. I agree with Sniglet that credit trumps all other factors in this most recent and unprecendented runup in the price of homes as shown on this chart. Inflation data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In 2017, Seattle home prices hit a record high of $700,000 within the city limits in April and the median rent in the same area hit $2,000 per month. In October 2020, the median list price of homes in Seattle, WA was $735K, trending up 5.1% year-over-year. When home values rise to the point that a person with a median income level for a particular area cannot afford to buy a median-priced home in that area, a market correction is near. DJO, I’m not sure what you’re trying to say. It’s larger and has been tricked out, but those numbers just don’t comport with reality. (I apologize for not have the exact dates for the recessions, I was hoping to find regional data but just gave up), 1969-75 Boeing lays off half of its work force and the nation enters a recession and the oil crisis. I’d hardly call a 20% drop a bloodbath, when prices have more than doubled in these areas. It will take another 20 months for the Alt-A mortgages to reset. So far, my predictions seem to be right on track. Seattle “median” is $435k. […] between the attitude in Seattle in 2006 and the attitude in Australia at present. Historical Median Home Value. But the builders are still producing houses at an accelerated rate due to high prices. Most of the weakness in the market will come from the 1000 sq ft boxes in drainage ditches on the south side. Talk about unintended consequences. They did mention that markets were different place to place though. 125% of that is $543k. Home prices in Washington accelerated quickly from 2002 through 2007. Angie, I’m in that “lower level”, so I’m certainly not looking at the world from a lofty perch. If it was the former, then I think the price inflation will endure. because they have the least amount of equity). Note, however, that both doubles took about the same length of time: 15 years. When a home-owner without equity runs into any trouble, they can’t just sell or re-finance, and the only option is foreclosure. PDF versions will no longer be produced. Also, with respect to #6 above, even if the Fed cuts rates, that may not impact the rates which mortgages go at. I believe we are facing an unprecedented global economic reality. So a Case-Shiller value of 200 means house prices have doubled since January 2000. Stay tuned for part 2: affordability. Median home price in Washington 1996 - 2019 Year Median 2019 $397,900 2018 $362,100 2017 $348,900 2016 $315,900 2015 $289,100 2014 $267,600 2013 $253,800 2012 $236,600 2011 $223,900 2010 $246,300 2009 $250,400 2008 $284,400 2007 $309,600 2006 $293,800 2005 $260,900 2004 $225,000 2003 $203,800 2002 $188,500 2001 $179,900 2000 $176,300 1999 $166,600 The median home price … There wasn’t a shortage of land from 1945-70. This graph depicts the average ticket price for Seattle Seahawks games in the National Football League from 2006 to 2019. The inflation measurements are starting to reflect the rate cuts earlier this year. With 744,955 people, 323,446 houses or apartments, and a median cost of homes of $774,806, Seattle house prices are not only among the most expensive in Washington, Seattle real estate also is some of the most expensive in all of America. Banks are seeing inflation in the future and pricing mortgages accordingly. I wonder if that was because of the new 1996 land use Regs., if things were left alone to progress naturaly you might have seen a longer step, not just a breather in the mid ’90’s, – somting to tink about, you do alot of good investigative stuff, though of expanding your service, I’d like some work done on my family tree. Median Sale Price. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Tim’s graph makes it clear. Higher demand drives the price up. So, after more than a few Friday afternoons spent at the UW pouring through the old reports and hours spent merging the old data with the modern NWMLS data and adjusting for inflation, I have come up with the following graph. Peak to start of next big run-up: 6.5 years, So we’re looking at an average run-up of around 2 years, followed by a dropping/flat period of about 7.5 years. Boundaries will be loath to keep slashing rates when the CPI hits the 5 for... Tables will be available only in Excel format price per square foot Snohomish! 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Historically low interest rates were above 11 % topping out at me how... Much have fed rate is likely to fall another 2 points before the end of the world such..., increasing 9.9 % over 2019 rents and is thus preferred in U.S.! Two doors down, a house back further uncharted waters reference and look!
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